Researchers have emphasized the vital importance of trade in bolstering resilience and promoting inclusive growth across Africa during the recent African Economic Conference held in Gaborone, Botswana.
The conference, co-hosted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the African Development Bank (AfDB), with support from the Botswana government, featured presentations on “Trade in Africa under Uncertainty.”
The researchers provided compelling data showing that trade openness leads to reduced unemployment, innovation enhances global competitiveness, and fiscal strategies can effectively cushion external shocks. The discussions highlighted actionable recommendations, such as diversifying export markets, fostering inclusive trade policies, and harmonizing regional trade agreements to strengthen Africa’s economic position amid global uncertainties.
Quadri Abdulyekeen, presenting on “Trade Liberalisation Impact on Labour Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa,” explored how trade liberalization affects employment patterns across various demographics. His research, based on panel data from 37 countries over 16 years, indicated that increased trade openness is linked to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in national unemployment, particularly benefiting youth and women.
Dr. Oyabanke Aberjirin of the ECA encouraged researchers to include sector-specific insights and consider uncertainties in their analyses to better align with the conference themes.
Shakirudeen Taiwo’s presentation on “Integration of Africa into Global Value Chains and Emerging Macroeconomic Fluctuations” warned of Africa’s vulnerability to external shocks from global value chain integration. He noted that resource-rich countries are particularly exposed to price shocks, while non-resource-rich nations face currency instability. Taiwo suggested that diversifying export baskets and strengthening fiscal buffers could mitigate these risks, referencing Nigeria’s resilience during the 2008 financial crisis.
Mr. Ibrahim Nana from the World Bank presented findings on “The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade,” highlighting that import-related uncertainties had a more significant adverse effect compared to export-side uncertainties. He advocated for strategic integration into global value chains as a means of addressing such challenges.
Thierno Diallo examined the role of innovation in enhancing Francophone Africa’s participation in global value chains, revealing that firms investing in research and development are more likely to successfully integrate into these networks. He stressed the benefits of foreign technology and digital tools for small firms, while larger firms thrive through process innovations.
Canicio Dzingirai explored Namibia’s trade strategies in his presentation on “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Asymmetric Trilogy in Namibia.” He analyzed the country’s involvement with three economic blocks—the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Southern African Development Community (SADC), and Common Monetary Area (CMA)—and their impact on Namibia’s economic growth amid persistent trade deficits.
Dr. Amal Elbeshbishi noted that while regional trade blocks like SACU afford some resilience against shocks, Namibia’s global trade relationships yield more substantial economic growth. He emphasized the importance of aligning and harmonizing tariff agreements between regional blocs to optimize trade strategies.
